The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays conclude a four-game set when the AL East rivals face off on Thursday at 12:37 p.m. ET from the Rodgers Centre. One team throws a pitcher for his first-ever major league start, while the other starts a 35-year-old veteran making his first start of the year. Boston’s bats are finally living up to expectations, while Toronto ranks 11th in team ERA with an offense that’s shown signs of life. The latest Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds list Boston as the favorite on the money line at -160 (risk $160 to win $100), while the over-under is 10 runs. Before making any Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks of your own, listen to the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is off to a profitable start on its top-rated MLB picks in 2019. It also entered Week 9 on a strong 12-5 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Red Sox vs. Blue Jays. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the money line is showing all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Boston has found its offensive rhythm lately. In May, the Red Sox are batting .284 and averaging 6.6 runs per game, ranking near the top of the league in both categories — and more than double the 3.2 runs the Blue Jays are averaging this month.

Both teams have question marks at pitcher on Thursday, but Red Sox starter Ryan Weber has been strong in eight innings of work, allowing one run with seven strikeouts. This is an audition to stay at the major league level.

But just because Boston has played well lately does not mean it is the best value on the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays money line.

That’s because as good as Boston has been lately, those numbers have been inflated by stellar home efforts. On the road, the Red Sox are under .500 at 12-13.

Toronto’s offense is averaging just 3.4 runs per game at home, but it’s shown flashes. In two of its last five games, the team has registered at least 10 runs in victories over the White Sox and against these same Red Sox two days ago. Rookie Rowdy Tellez has sparked the bats, batting .304 over the last six games, with eight home runs and 24 RBIs on the season.

While both starters will be in new situations, Toronto’s Clayton Richard has been there, done that. The 11-year veteran is coming off the IL (knee) for his season debut and 201st career start. That’s a stark contrast to Boston’s Weber, who has posted an underwhelming 5.04 ERA in five minor league starts.