Fantasy Champions League — Build around the favorites

Fantasy Champions League — Build around the favorites

  • By michael@cvcteam.com
  • |

We’ve reached the business end of the European soccer season, folks. The Champions League quarterfinals begin this week, and half of the remaining eight teams hail from England’s Premier League: Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Barcelona and Juventus, the league leaders in Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A, have also advanced to this stage. The final two teams left are Ajax, currently top of the table in the Dutch Eredivisie, and Porto, currently second in Portugal’s Primeira Liga.

The two-legged quarterfinals will take place over the next two weeks, and both legs will count as a single round in ESPN’s Champions League fantasy format. So you’ll probably want to build your fantasy lineup around players from the favorites to advance to the semifinals.

That’s especially true in this round, because there are no close calls — at least according to the bookmakers. Each quarterfinal matchup features a significant favorite and a pretty heavy underdog.

Barcelona are actually the smallest favorites of the four, facing Manchester United. But that won’t stop me from making Lionel Messi my Tier 1 forward and captain. He’s been the best player in Europe by far this season, with 33 goals and 12 assists in 29 La Liga appearances, averaging nearly twice as many fantasy points per game as any other player in that league.

Messi also has eight goals and three assists in six Champions League appearances. Only Robert Lewandowski has as many goals, in two more appearances for now-eliminated Bayern Munich.

Manchester United have improved under new manager Ole Gunnar Skolskjaer, but they’re still in sixth place domestically, and not a strong defensive team — they’ve conceded 43 goals in 32 Premier League games. I expect Barcelona to advance, and Messi to perform very well in the process.

Manchester City are the biggest or second-biggest favorites to advance to the semis, according to online oddsmakers I check regularly. They’re involved in an all-Premier League matchup against Tottenham.

These teams are in second and third place, respectively, in England. But there’s a wide gulf between them. Man City are just two points behind first-place Liverpool, and have a game in hand. Tottenham are 16 points behind Man City.

These teams have played only once so far this season, a 1-0 Man City win at Wembley Stadium way back on Oct. 29. Riyad Mahrez scored the goal, but he’s been mostly a bench player this year.

Raheem Sterling provided the assist on Mahrez’s goal, and more importantly he’s been one of the best players in the Premier League this season. Sterling has 15 goals and nine assists in 28 appearances, and is third in the league in fantasy points per game.

Sterling has also been in good form of late, with four goals in four appearances (Premier League and Champions League) since the start of March, and he’s also been in good form against Tottenham — he scored three goals and took 11 shots in Man City’s two games against Tottenham last season. Sterling will be my Tier 1 midfielder this week.

Tier 2 talk

Liverpool are also widely expected to advance to the semis — they’re the biggest or second-biggest favorites, depending on where you get your odds. That should come as no surprise given that they’re up against Porto, who they defeated 5-0 on aggregate in the Round of 16 of this competition last year.

Roberto Firmino scored one of the goals in Liverpool’s 5-0 victory at Porto in the first leg (the second leg was a scoreless draw), and took a team-high six shots in that game.

Firmino has had a relatively quiet season fantasy-wise, but he’s picked it up of late, with three goals and two assists in four Premier League starts since the beginning of March. He has only two goals in eight Champions League appearances, but was a superstar in this competition last year, with 10 goals and seven assists in 13 appearances.

I think Firmino is the best option at Tier 2 forward, especially since 10 of the 16 players available come from the four underdogs.

I may go with a player from one of the underdogs at Tier 2 midfielder, however. That’s how good Hakim Ziyech has been for Ajax this season.

Ziyech has 15 goals and 10 assists in 24 Eredivisie appearances. He has only two goals and one assist in seven Champions League appearances, but Ziyech has taken at least five shots in six of those seven games, so he has a high floor fantasy-wise.

The problem is, Ziyech will be up against Juventus, who have conceded a league-low 20 goals in 31 games in Serie A, and only six goals in eight Champions League games. That’s why I’m not 100 percent sold on Ziyech.

Fortunately, the Ajax-Juventus first leg isn’t until Wednesday — the same day as the Manchester United-Barcelona first leg. So I’m going to wait until Wednesday, to see Ousmane Dembele’s status for Barcelona.

Dembele has been out with a hamstring injury, but trained on Monday and has been included in the Barcelona squad traveling to Manchester. He has three goals and an assist in six Champions League appearances this season, and I would consider picking Dembele over Ziyech if he starts on Wednesday.

Other picks

Sergio Busquets, Barcelona (Tier 3 midfielder): He has started seven of Barcelona’s eight Champions League games so far, and has finished in double figures in points five times. Busquets doesn’t provide much upside, but has a very high floor, averaging 79.6 passes per game in those seven starts.

Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool (Tier 1 defender): He’s the leading defender in the Premier League, averaging 13.4 points per game — over two points more than Barcelona’s Jordi Alba in La Liga. Van Dijk is second domestically in passes completed, and Liverpool dominated possession against Porto last season — 64.9 percent at home, 55.3 percent away.

Leonardo Bonucci, Juventus (Tier 2 defender): He has started all eight of Juventus’ Champions League games so far, and finished in double figures in points six times (and with 9.9 and 9.1 points in the other two games). Bonucci has a solid floor, averaging 65.8 passes per game in the Champions League, and 50.4 passes per game in Serie A.

Alisson, Liverpool (Goalkeeper): He leads the Premier League in clean sheets with 17, and Liverpool have conceded a league-low 20 goals in 33 games. Porto couldn’t score in two legs against Liverpool last season, and even though Alisson hadn’t joined Liverpool yet, he’s still the most attractive option at ‘keeper this week.

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