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The Houston Texans look to continue their road success when they battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a key game on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium. The Texans (9-5) have compiled a 9-6 road mark over the past two seasons, while the Buccaneers (7-7) are just 6-8 on their home field since the beginning of 2018. Kickoff from Tampa is slated for 1 p.m. ET in the first game of the Week 16 NFL schedule, and the Texans are 3-4 against NFC opponents over the past two years. Houston is favored by a field goal in the latest Texans vs. Buccaneers odds, up from an open of 1.5, while the over-under is 50.5, down 2.5 from where the total opened. Before making any Buccaneers vs. Texans picks of your own, see the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 16 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-22 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 95-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Buccaneers. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and it’s also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. Visit SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL lines and trends for Texans vs. Buccaneers:
Texans vs. Buccaneers spread: Texans -3
Texans vs. Buccaneers over-under: 50.5 points
Texans vs. Buccaneers money line: Texans -171, Buccaneers +147
HOU: Texans are averaging 24.4 points per game
TB: Buccaneers are No. 1 in passing yards per game (327.9)
The model knows the Texans have secured their fifth winning season in six years under coach Bill O’Brien. Prior to the 2014 season, Houston had posted just three winning seasons in team history. O’Brien’s five winning seasons are tied for the most by an active NFL head coach in their first six full years, joining the Steelers’ Mike Tomlin, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Andy Reid, then of Philadelphia.
Offensively, Houston has a number of deep threats. The Texans have 26 receptions of 30 or more yards, which ranks third in the league. They’re also the only team to record at least five catches of 30-plus yards in two separate games. Wide receivers Will Fuller (tied for sixth in the league with nine), DeAndre Hopkins (seven) and Kenny Stills (seven) all rank in the top 12 in receptions of 30 or more yards.
But just because Houston is on the verge of clinching a division title does not guarantee it will cover the Buccaneers vs. Texans spread on Saturday.
That’s because the Buccaneers have totaled at least 475 yards of offense the past two games. With 475 yards against Houston, it would mark the first time in NFL history that a team has had three consecutive games with at least 475 yards. Tampa Bay has also scored at least 35 points in the last two games as well. With 35 against the Texans, it would mark the first time in Buccaneers history the team would have accomplished that feat in three straight games.
With top receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans expected to miss the rest of the season due to hamstring injuries, Breshad Perriman will be the team’s top receiver. Perriman has been explosive at times this season, with 24 receptions for 409 yards (17.0 average) and five touchdowns. He has 10 explosive plays of over 20 yards. Perriman torched the Lions last week with five receptions for 113 yards and three end zone visits.
So who wins Buccaneers vs. Texans? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Buccaneers spread to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.