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There’s a world of buzz surrounding the Phillies’ pursuit of Bryce Harper and for good reason. He’s one of the most complete players in the game today. It isn’t difficult to project 500-plus home runs and 2,500 hits from what he’s already done through his 26th birthday.
Even in a “down” season for Harper (a .249 season average, 30 points down from his career average), his power numbers didn’t suffer: 34 homers, 100 RBIs and a slugging percentage just below .500.
Interestingly, Harper’s HR/RBI totals last season were dead even between home and road games: 17 HR, 50 RBIs for each. But as Phillies fans dream of Harper in red pinstripes, we wonder: How would Harper’s offense translate to playing 81 games at Citizens Bank Park?
Using the site baseballsavant.mlb.com, which uses data directly culled from MLB’s Statcast, we can find out:
We took Harper’s 2018 batted balls and overlaid them on a map of CBP. As you can see, all of his 17 home runs hit at Nationals Park last season would also be out of the Phillies’ home park, but there are also nine (possibly 10) balls he hit in D.C. that were doubles or outs, that would be dingers here in Philly.
That would make 26 to 27 homers, just in the home games. Over the last three seasons, only three hitters hit 27 long balls at home (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and JD Martinez, all in 2017).
It’s just another reason why the Phillies’ faithful are salivating at the thought of Harper’s name in the lineup every day.