Teams that traditionally host Thanksgiving Day NFL games meet on Sunday, two weeks before the holiday. The Dallas Cowboys (5-4) head to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Lions (3-5) at 1 p.m. ET. Dallas has covered the spread five times this season, while Detroit has covered four games. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford will sit out for the second consecutive week with a back injury, news that threw the NFL odds for this game into turmoil. Dallas is a touchdown favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Lions odds after the line fell as low as three, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is 47. The Cowboys own a point differential of plus-nine this season, while the Lions are at minus-2.2. Before making any Lions vs. Cowboys picks of your own, be sure to view the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 29-18 run that dates back to last season.

It’s also on an incredible 91-61 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, consistently beating NFL odds. Last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it’s simulated Cowboys vs. Lions 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning under the total, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. Visit SportsLine now to get the pick.

The model knows that Dallas has won the past three games in this series. The teams played Week 4 last year in Arlington, and the Cowboys won, 26-24, as Brett Maher kicked a 38-yard field goal as time expired. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 152 yards on 25 carries and caught four passes for 88 yards and a touchdown.

Expect Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to emphasize the run on Sunday after the Cowboys rushed for just 50 yards in a home upset loss to Minnesota on Sunday night in Week 10. In addition, the Lions have had trouble against the run, allowing nearly 130 yards per game (27th in the NFL). Detroit isn’t much better against the pass, surrendering 272.4 yards per game (28th), and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is having his best season as he angles for a new contract.

But just because Dallas is a road favorite on Sunday doesn’t mean it will cover the Cowboys vs. Lions spread.

Two of Detroit’s three wins this season are over the NFC East: A 27-24 upset in Philadelphia and a 31-26 home victory over the New York Giants. Former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford is out for the second straight game with broken bones in his back. As a result, Detroit will turn to journeyman Jeff Driskel, a 2016 sixth-round pick of the San Francisco 49ers. Driskel was 27-for-46 for 269 yards with a touchdown and interception in last week’s 20-13 loss to the Bears.

The Lions are 4-3 against the spread as underdogs this season and 3-1 against the number versus teams like Dallas that win more than 55 percent of their games. The Cowboys also failed to cover last week, losing outright as field goal favorites against the Vikings.