The Chiefs will try to snap a home slide and outscore the Vikings when Minnesota visits Kansas City on Sunday. Matt Moore will start at quarterback in place of the inactive Patrick Mahomes (knee), but he’ll have plenty of help at the skill positions. The Chiefs are on a three-game skid at home, but they haven’t lost four straight at Arrowhead since 2012 and have won three of the last five games in the series. Kansas City hung tough with the Packers last week, but lost 31-24 to fall to 5-3. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Vikings vs. Chiefs odds, up sharply from an open of four, while the over-under for total points scored is 46. Before you consider any Chiefs vs. Vikings picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 9 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 25-17 run that dates back to last season.

It’s also on an incredible 87-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has broken down Chiefs vs. Vikings, and we can tell you it’s leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Moore threw for 267 yards with two touchdowns in place of Mahomes last week, and he has two All-Pro targets in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Kelce leads the team with 42 receptions for 604 yards. Hill (15.4), Sammy Watkins (14.6), Mecole Hardman (18.7) and Demarcus Robinson all average at least 14.5 yards per catch for the high-powered offense. Running back LeSean McCoy has 19 receptions and has rushed for 362 yards despite nagging injuries.

The Chiefs’ defense has been hit with injuries, but it harassed Aaron Rodgers throughout last week’s game, posting five sacks a week after getting nine against Denver. Tanoh Kpassagnon had two sacks last week and Emmanuel Ogbah had one, and he leads the team with 4.5. Linebackers Damien Wilson (team-high 51 tackles) and Anthony Hitchens hold the unit together.

But just because Kansas City has the weapons and is playing at home doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Vikings spread on Sunday.

Minnesota’s offense has found its groove since a Week 4 loss to Chicago fired everybody up. Cousins is completing 78.4 percent of his passes during the four-game winning streak, averaging 315.5 yards per game and throwing 10 touchdowns and just one interception over that span. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has at least seven receptions and 130 yards in three straight games, while Adam Thielen is officially active after missing last week a hamstring injury. Cook leads the NFL in rushing with 823 yards and has scored nine times.

The Vikings are also among the best in the NFL defensively, allowing just 16.5 points (third in the league) and 331.9 total yards (fifth). Minnesota has 23 sacks and has forced 13 turnovers, with eight interceptions. Defensive end Danielle Hunter has a team-high eight sacks, while safety Anthony Harris has three interceptions. Linebacker Eric Kendricks anchors the unit and has 68 tackles and 10 passes defended.